Doing the right thing is always tough.

The great state of Victoria is right now the laughing stock and the black sheep in Australia. With rising counts of COVID-19 cases, clearly pointing to large scale community transmission leading to a second peak, and the inability of the government to prioritize resident health over revitalising the economy has clearly shown the lack of strong leadership in the state. And the relative outstanding performance of other states, even neighbouring states, paints a bleak picture for Vic. If these other states can efficiently manage these numbers, why can’t us ?

This is the same failing leadership which was on display during last year’s bush fires. Yes, that was just last year. This ‘wait and watch’ approach to emergency situations is something typically seen in developing nations. It does not sit well in such a developed country.

The truth is, the people in power know what the right thing to do is. But can’t. It takes courage, and commitment, to do the right thing.

The kids in the government need to grow up.

Prime’s free movies: Becoming Jane

https://medium.com/@placetaken/primes-free-movies-becoming-jane-612e500d97ba

We have been under lockdown for more than 3 months now. During this period, I finally found some free time, and I spent a few of it watching some free movies on Prime. From yesterday. Here are my reviews:

Read the rest here : 

https://medium.com/@placetaken/primes-free-movies-becoming-jane-612e500d97ba

Where’s the peak ?

I honestly cannot believe we are now 6 months into this year. This pandemic filled nightmare year. How could we have got this so wrong ? 2020 was going to be the fancy year, the fun and happening year. The culmination of two decades into the millennium, the yeas in which millennials turn adults.  And , if you subscribed to the political propaganda, and had read the books of Abdul Kalam, this was the year India was going to makes its mark (Remember the book, India 2020 ?)on the world.

Well India has left and will leave its mark on the world. The world’s largest lockdown has turned out to be hogwash, and India has accelerated itself into the top 5 of the world’s COVID affected countries. Long predicted by the world’s non-Indian infectious disease experts, this statement was ‘fake-news’ed by India’s politicians early on. Even now, the Govt denies India has community spread, and is getting ready to organize political rallies for the upcoming state elections.

And here is the bare truth : we are yet to peak.

It does not inspire confidence when scientific consensus is thrown out in favour of political propaganda. To be fair, India is not the only country to do so, almost every country has fudged their numbers, if rumour is to be believed, to look better than others. But while some others have genuinely put in the hard work and effort to fight this invisible enemy, ours is a case of being attacked on multiple fronts.

 

The plights of India’s poor migrant labours was the first of these. This was followed by reported intrusion at the border with China. And now , the country is hearing about the border being redrawn with our northern ally Nepal.  PM Modi and his cabinet has long denied the reported slow down in our economy, but now the pandemic has brought it to stop. There is now a half planned, and half-hearted attempt to restart manufacturing in this troubled economy, and to ‘turn the virus into an opportunity’. It is balderdash that the nation can do in a few months what it could not do in more than 70 years. But the biggest gobbledygook of all was the stimulus package announced by the govt, which was mostly repackaging of previously announced plans, with the govt delegating   responsibility of the stimulus to the nation’s already trouble banks. It did not help that a section of the media sided with the govt’s lies to keep  the people in the blind.

 

Day to day life has now become increasingly dangerous in India. The govt no longer cares (if it ever did) about its people, and is focussed on upcoming elections, and making the people work for the govt, instead of the other way around.

Ask not, they say, what the nation can do for the people, but what the people can further do for the nation.

 

 

 

 

Going medium

https://medium.com/@placetaken

 

Sometimes, you have to be in the medium space.

Everyone expects India's economy to contract. Everyone.

S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Indian economy will shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal as it joined a chorus of international agencies that are forecasting a contraction in growth rate due to coronavirus lockdown halting economic activity.

Stating that COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India, the rating agency in a statement said the government stimulus package is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic.

"The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown -- longer in some areas -- have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said. "Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world."

Forecasting a 5 per cent contraction in 2020-21 (versus 1.8 per cent growth forecast it made in April), S&P said growth is expected to pick up to 8.5 per cent in the following fiscal (up from the previous forecast of 7.5 per cent). The GDP is projected to expand by 6.5 per cent in FY23 and 6.6 per cent FY24.

Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings and Crisil, too, projected a 5 per cent contraction for the Indian economy.

While Fitch Ratings had stated that India has had a very stringent lockdown policy that has lasted a lot longer than initially expected and incoming economic activity data have been spectacularly weak, Crisil had said the country's fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date, is here.

On Thursday, Fitch Solutions (which is separate from Fitch Ratings) forecast real GDP to contract by 4.5 per cent in FY2020-21 saying "high unemployment will depress consumer spending, while widespread economic uncertainties will curb investment in the private sector.

Moody's Investors Service on May 8, forecast a 'zero' growth rate for India in FY21.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice – as per available data – in fiscal year 1958, 1966 and 1980. A monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy, was the reason on all three occasions.

This time around agriculture is not the reason but a dent to industrial and economic activity caused by lockdown, which was first imposed on March 25. The lockdown has been extended thrice till May 31 with some easing of restrictions.

S&P Global Ratings expects varying degrees of containment measures and economic resumption across India during this transition.

"COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India. New cases have been averaging more than 6,000 a day over the past week as authorities begin easing stringent lockdown restrictions gradually to prevent economic costs from blowing out further. We currently assume that the outbreak peaks by the third quarter," it said.

India has grouped geographical zones into red, orange, or green categories based on the number of cases. Areas currently classified as red zones are also economically significant, and the authorities could extend mobility restrictions.

"We believe economic activity in these places will take longer to normalize. This will have knock-on impacts on countrywide supply chains, which will slow the overall recovery," it said.

The rating agency said high-frequency data for April showed major economic costs for India - purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector was 5.4, on a scale where anything below 50 indicates a contraction of business activity from the previous month for the sector.

Also, service sectors, which account for high shares of employment, have been severely affected, thus leading to large-scale job losses across the country. Workers have been geographically displaced as migrant workers travelled back home before the lockdown, and this will take time to unwind as lockdown measures are lifted.

"We expect that employment will remain depressed over the transition period," it said.

S&P said India has limited room to maneuver on policy support. The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 115 basis points but banks have been unwilling to extend credit. Small and mid-size enterprises continue to face restricted access to credit markets despite some policy measures aimed at easing financing for the sector.

"The government's stimulus package, with a headline amount of 10 per cent of GDP, has about 1.2 per cent of direct stimulus measures, which is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. The remaining 8.8 per cent of the package includes liquidity support measures and credit guarantees that will not directly support growth," it said.

The rating agency said the big hit to growth will mean a large, permanent economic loss and a deterioration in balance sheets throughout the economy.

"The risks around the path of recovery will depend on three key factors. First, the speed with which the COVID-19 outbreak comes under control. Faster flattening of the curve -- in other words, reducing the number of new cases -- will potentially allow faster normalization of activity. Second, a labour market recovery will be key to getting the economy running again. Finally, the ability of all sectors of the economy to restore their balance sheets following the adverse shock will be important. The longer the duration of the shock, the longer recovery," it added.

Acknowledging a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak, it said some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak around mid-year, and that has been used as an assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications.