The Kerala model

 When, towards the end of the first decade of the present century, Narendra Modi began speaking frequently about something he called the 'Gujarat Model', it was the second time a state of the Indian Union had that grand, self-promoting, suffix added to its name. The first was Kerala. The origins of the term 'Kerala Model' go back to a study done in the 1970s by economists associated with the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram. This showed that when it came to indices of population (as in declining birth rates), education (as in remarkably high literacy for women) and health (as in lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy), this small state in a desperately poor country had done as well - and sometimes better - than parts of Europe and North America.

Boosted to begin with by economists and demographers, Kerala soon came in for praise from sociologists and political scientists. The former argued that caste and class distinctions had radically diminished in Kerala over the course of the 20th century; the latter showed that, when it came to implementing the provisions of the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution, Kerala was ahead of other states. More power had been devolved to municipalities and panchayats than elsewhere in India.

Success, as John F. Kennedy famously remarked, has many fathers (while failure is an orphan). When these achievements of the state of Kerala became widely known, many groups rushed to claim their share of the credit. The communists, who had been in power for long stretches, said it was their economic radicalism that did it. Followers of Sri Narayana Guru (1855-1928) said it was the egalitarianism promoted by that great social reformer which led to much of what followed. Those still loyal to the royal houses of Travancore and Cochin observed that when it came to education, and especially girls' education, their Rulers were more progressive than Maharajas and Nawabs elsewhere. The Christian community of Kerala also chipped in, noting that some of the best schools, colleges, and hospitals were run by the Church. It was left to that fine Australian historian of Kerala and India, Robin Jeffrey, to critically analyse all these claims, and demonstrate in what order and what magnitude they contributed. His book Politics, Women and Wellbeing remains the definitive work on the subject.

Such were the elements of the 'Kerala Model'. What did the 'Gujarat Model' that Narendra Modi began speaking of, c. 2007, comprise? Mr Modi did not himself ever define it very precisely. But there is little doubt that the coinage itself was inspired and provoked by what had preceded it. The Gujarat Model would, Mr Modi was suggesting, be different from, and better than, the Kerala Model. Among the noticeable weaknesses of the latter was that it did not really encourage private enterprise. Marxist ideology and trade union politics both inhibited this. On the other hand, the Vibrant Gujarat Summits organized once every two years when Mr Modi was Chief Minister were intended precisely to attract private investment.

This openness to private capital was, for Mr Modi's supporters, undoubtedly the most attractive feature of what he was marketing as the 'Gujarat Model'. It was this that brought to him the support of big business, and of small business as well, when he launched his campaign for Prime Minister. Young professionals, disgusted by the cronyism and corruption of the UPA regime, flocked to his support, seeing him as a modernizing Messiah who would make India an economic powerhouse. 

With the support of these groups, and many others, Narendra Modi was elected Prime Minister in May 2014.

There were other aspects of the Gujarat Model that Narendra Modi did not speak about, but which those who knew the state rather better than the Titans of Indian industry were perfectly aware of. These included the relegation of minorities (and particularly Muslims) to second-class status; the centralization of power in the Chief Minister and the creation of a cult of personality around him; attacks on the independence and autonomy of universities; curbs on the freedom of the press; and, not least, a vengeful attitude towards critics and political rivals.

These darker sides of the Gujarat Model were all played down in Mr Modi's Prime Ministerial campaign. But in the six years since he has been in power at the Centre, they have become starkly visible. The communalization of politics and of popular discourse, the capturing of public institutions, the intimidation of the press, the use of the police and investigating agencies to harass opponents, and, perhaps above all, the deification of the Great Leader by the party, the Cabinet, the Government, and the Godi Media - these have characterized the Prime Ministerial tenure of Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, the most widely advertised positive feature of the Gujarat Model before 2014 has proved to be a dud. Far from being a free-market reformer, Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is an absolute statist in economic matters. As an investment banker who once enthusiastically supported him recently told me in disgust: "Narendra Modi is our most left-wing Prime Minister ever - he is even more left-wing than Jawaharlal Nehru".

Which brings me back to the Kerala Model, which the Gujarat Model sought to replace or supplant. Talked about a great deal in the 1980s and 1990s, in recent years, the term was not much heard in policy discourse any more. It had fallen into disuse, presumably consigned to the dustbin of history. The onset of COVID-19 has now thankfully rescued it, and indeed brought it back to centre-stage. For in how it has confronted, tackled, and tamed the COVID crisis, Kerala has once again showed itself to be a model for India - and perhaps the world.

There has been some excellent reporting on how Kerala flattened the curve. It seems clear that there is a deeper historical legacy behind the success of this state. Because the people of Kerala are better educated, they have followed the practices in their daily life least likely to allow community transmission. Because they have such excellent health care, if people do test positive, they can be treated promptly and adequately. Because caste and gender distinctions are less extreme than elsewhere in India, access to health care and medical information is less skewed. Because decentralization of power is embedded in systems of governance, panchayat heads do not have to wait for a signal from a Big Boss before deciding to act. There are two other features of Kerala's political culture that have helped them in the present context; its top leaders are generally more grounded and less imperious than elsewhere, and bipartisanship comes more easily to the state's politicians.

The state of Kerala is by no means perfect. While there have been no serious communal riots for many decades, in everyday life there is still some amount of reserve in relations between Hindus, Christians and Muslims. Casteism and patriarchy have been weakened, but by no means eliminated. The intelligentsia still remain unreasonably suspicious of private enterprise, which will hurt the state greatly in the post-COVID era, after remittances from the Gulf have dried up.

For all their flaws, the state and people of Kerala have many things to teach us, who live in the rest of India. We forgot about their virtues in the past decade, but now these virtues are once more being discussed, to both inspire and chastise us. The success of the state in the past and in the present have rested on science, transparency, decentralization, and social equality. These are, as it were, the four pillars of the Kerala Model. On the other hand, the four pillars of the Gujarat Model are superstition, secrecy, centralization, and communal bigotry. Give us the first over the second, any day. 

 

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/give-us-kerala-model-over-gujarat-model-any-day-by-ramachandra-guha-2216254

Big year.

This will one of those big years for me. Correction - biggest year. Life changing. Things are never going to be the same again. I will be looking back to these times forever from this point. Am I ready for it ?

Oh yes. Ready as I will every be.

But the truth is, no one is really ready for these things. You just go with it.

And learn.

A world of changes.

It has been quiet, lately When I go out now, there are fewer people on the road, in the trams, and everywhere else. Trains are no longer full, and run on time. For the first time in maybe years, all trains are been cleaned. It is now easier to drive on the roads, fewer cars outside, no traffic jams. No crowds, no noisy neighbours, and when you sneeze, nobody turns around and says “bless you!”

If it was not for the pandemic, and the fact that so many people have already died, this would have been a much better world to yearn for. It is ironical that it took a disease to tell us that there are indeed more powerful forces on this planet than brute human strength.

March, 2020. This month is going to live on in infamy. It took 3 months for the whole world to wake up to the threat; a new, invisible enemy that our planet has to fight. In these past days, two things have become ever clear. One: we are not prepared. Not even the most developed and advanced countries on earth are prepared for a pandemic of this proportion. All the while nations were busy fighting over each other, stocking up arms and preparing for future wars. No one thought of other ways their nations could be defeated: sheer human lethargy. Things have come to such an extent that some nations have issued shoot at sight orders against their own citizens, if they ever step out of their homes! Others have just resorted to fines at the moment, while some have started using brute force, with no regards to human rights and constitutional rights of its citizens.

Two: The borders between the rich and poor have never been as clear and sharp than what is exposed right now. Its easy for the govt of any country to declare mandatory social distancing. But only those who have a home can stay home. Social distancing is a privilege, enjoyed by the rich, or at least financially prepared. For the poor, who live from day to day, and with no long term social security or planning, it is simply not an option. While those with disposal incomes were hoarding supermarket produce, ordering takeout delivery ,staying home and watching streamed videos, those who couldn’t do it were struggling to pay their and rent and buy the day’s essentials. Many lost their jobs, due to companies running into overnight losses, and many others have been kicked out of their homes, due to inability to pay rent. Buried within the statistics of COVID deaths is an invisible count of people who died due to the shutdown, but not directly due to the virus.

In India, the nation’s stark difference between its rich and poor have exposed how unprepared the govt is at managing a pandemic. While cabinet ministers are at home playing board games, and PM is on tv shedding crocodile tears, a long line of poor, migrant workers is snaking across the nation, in an attempt to get home. Ignoring all calls to socially distance, millions of daily wage workers have come together to strike for the day’s meal, or just ask for the path to travel home. Due to public transportation being shutdown in most places, and borders between states now being closely monitored, these workers have resorted to walking hundreds of kilometres home through dangerous forests and treacherous  terrain, to slip under the eyes of authorities. Many have died in this exodus. The govt has tried to shift responsibilities to its well to do urban rich, asking them to pay their workers during the lockdown, blindly believing the non-existent trickle down economy will take of the lower levels. The numbers of COVID infected are meanwhile, growing exponentially.

This event is undoubtedly going to change the world. For the better, I sincerely hope. Now is the time to see the benefits of social welfare programs taking care of a nation’s needy. This is not the time to worry about a failing economy, but the failing healthcare system. Already some world leaders have been infected, showing the world that a pandemic like this does not differentiate between the rich and poor. Or between religion and borders. Lets learn from this, and be better prepared for next time.

PS: I am reminded of Ian Malcolm’s ramblings in Jurassic Park, when he says the world and nature will find a way to stop humans. This world was here billions of years before us, and will persist fo billions more without us. Incurable diseases is just one way of keeping escalating population in check.

World war C

This is war. Full on. No government might mention or accept it, but we are now at war. Against an enemy we can’t see or hear.  We are at war with the Coronavirus. And therefore, at each other.

You see, the only way the virus could have spread this far out into the world was my human-to-human contact. And governments world over have now started to advice social-distancing. Things have now come down to this, we now have to avoid each other ! Governments in Italy ,China, Spain have announced full lockdowns, restricting its people from even venturing out, whether they are infected or not. And other countries are following suit.

Australia, too panic-stricken to lead by example, is yet to call a nation-wide absolute lockdown. Worried more about its economy, which was already sliding before the pandemic, they only banned flights from China, and advised people to follow minimum protocols. Now with 290 confirmed cases and 3 deaths, there is a little more seriousness in the way their approach to the war. A few weeks back, the idiots down under lit up Australian national monuments in red and yellow, to show solidarity & remember the sacrifice of China; but it was more of a PR effort to retain the good relations with that country. It took the Aussies an additional week to announce the full ban against travellers from Italy, and the damage is now visible. The country had barely recovered from the disastrous bush fires, right into this pandemic. The fight for toilet paper is still on.

Things aren’t looking any better for India, who’s leaders took all their sweet time to draft and finalize a proper response. Kerala was the first Indian state to report an infection, but also the first to announce a fool-proof action plan to isolate and treat the patient. This was last month, showing exceptional knowledge & leadership in the matter. The rest of India at the time asked questions as to why is it always Kerala that is the epicenter of new, viral diseases, and religious bigots blamed the food habits and breakage of temple rituals for the initial spread. But now no-one is questioning the lack of leadership from the central government, now that there are 100 cases and 2 deaths.  Sanghis are resorting to drinking cow-urine and bathing in cow-dung to prevent an infection, becoming the laughing stock of the rest of the world.

And it is ironic that Italy and Iran , countries known to be too open and too closed to the outside world, are equally affected by COVID infections.

But no country was un-prepared for this pandemic than, wait for it….the US. The leader of the free world was caught with its pants down with s serious outbreak, when the nation was itself busy in the initial stages of its presidential election. The whitehouse, again more worried about the falling stock markets, continued to pelt lies and false propaganda, and struggled to lead a country which does not even have universal health care. The gaps in its preparedness and leadership is now as clear as night and day, with 45 deaths right in the state of Washington. If nothing else, this alone should be enough to wipe the country of its real infection, the virus sitting in the oval office, and hopefully, its citizens would vote for the democratic party, just to receive a generous medical insurance cover.

Scientists and leaders are shocked at the un-precented rapid spread of the viral pandemic, around the world, in just 3 months. At this moment, there are over 169,000 confirmed COVID cases, and 6,500 deaths. You could chart and sort the data however you want, but the fact remains that the world was too busy fighting oil wars and trade and tariff wars with each other, and no body had a plan or a prediction for a viral outbreak. Hollywood is good at making movies about viral epidemics, but for once, a horror movie is coming to life. In the initial days, virologists were trying to figure out the original source of this aberration, blaming bats, snakes and pangolins for being the host. But everyone has forgotten that branch of thought, the current host right now are human beings. The more we embrace and thank each other, the more we are passing on the virus.

This incident will change the world. Later generations, hopefully there are a few, will talk, discuss and study how grossly unprepared the world was. They will study how false news and hype caused more damage than the actual infection. And how leaders were focussed on economy and money, and were hesitant to focus on their greatest wealth and asset – human beings. Hopefully, we will emerge from this unscathed, with a fraction of the world population lost, but with lessons learnt from the mistakes we made.

This maybe the next big war we fight, as one. So please stay together in spirit, but ironically, remember to maintain your distance.

How hitchhiking through Europe inspired Narayana Murthy to set up Infosys

 

It is mentioned in NRN’s biography that it was a unfortunate & painful experience during his hitch-hiking trips in 1970s Europe that converted him from a communist to capitalist. And that was the epihany that inspired his company. Here is the story in a little more detail.

 

 

Paris, 1974.

It had been several years since I was working in Paris. I was 27, and lived in a one-bedroom apartment on the 7th arrondissement.

The Europe of the seventies saw influences of leftism, socialism and liberalism. In 1968, there had been a student revolution, and its impact was clear. Students voiced their opinion on every major matter. Paris was then the safest city in Europe. There was no Charles de Gaulle then, but only the Orly airport. On most weekends, my friends and I would be out till 2am. We would walk home (it was the most well-lit city in the world), since the Metro would close by 1am.

My friends and I would frequently drive to London. There was no Channel Tunnel then. We would take a night train to Calais, and from there, a ferry to Dover. We would drive into the ship, park our car, sit in the lounge, and drive out after getting there. The process was not difficult, but it took about 6-8 hours.

Despite the fact that it was barely two years after the Munich Olympic massacre of 1972, the fear of people hadn’t percolated into everyday routine as it has now.

I had been thinking of enhancing my experience in Europe, and wanted to hitchhike across European countries. I had travelled around—I would take off once every month and had visited Germany, Holland and Austria—but had never backpacked, or gotten around in strangers’ cars. I thought about it for six months. I knew that if I didn’t do it then, I wouldn’t do it at all.

I had saved about USD 5,000 from my salary, of which I kept USD 450. The rest I gave away to an organization called Freres de Tiers Mondes, which translates to ‘Brothers from the third world’. Since I was hitchhiking, I didn’t need all that money.

As an Indian, I needed visa to travel. There was no Schengen then. So, it took me approximately a month and half to get visas ready for 25 countries. I bought a nice backpack, a sleeping bag, a windcheater and some winter clothes before the trip. There were no credit cards then, so I carried some traveller’s cheques.

I resigned from my job, and over the next 11 months, hitchhiked from Paris to Kabul, covering Italy, Austria, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Serbia, Croatia (then Yugoslavia), Bulgaria, Istanbul, Greece and Afghanistan.

Across most of Europe, I got around by hitchhiking. Those days, it was very easy to get a lift. You just went to the gas station and stood there. There were no destinations – drivers would pick up people who were going in the same direction as them. Sometimes, they would also offer lunch or dinner. These days, one hardly sees people hitchhiking. Then, gas stations would be filled with hitchhikers, especially during summers.

Today, I am certain that one would not be allowed to sleep at railway stations in Europe. But, that is exactly what I did during the trip.

Usually one had to wait for an hour or two to be picked up, but I have also waited for six hours at times. I had a pocket radio, which kept me entertained while I waited. Meals would usually be easy-to-carry items like sandwiches with French fries. At that time, I was not vegetarian; it would have been very difficult if I were. Since it would get very cold often, I had with me a flask to store hot coffee or tea.

The biggest difference that I see between the world then and now, is fear. Today, people are so scared of other people. Nobody allows strangers in their cars. Despite the fact that it was barely two years after the Munich Olympic massacre of 1972, the fear of people hadn’t percolated into everyday routine as it has now.

Today, I am certain that one would not be allowed to sleep at railway stations in Europe. But, that is exactly what I did during the trip. Most drivers would drop you at railway stations. I would leave my sleeping bag and backpack in the locker — which came cheap at about 25 cents for a day — and went out to see the city. I would return at night and sleep on one of the benches, as many others did. The police would walk past and smile at us — there was no fear.

It was also very convenient — they were open 24 hours a day, were clean and pleasant, and had coffee shops and restaurants too.

***

Out in the world, there were many interesting incidents. For instance, while travelling from Pisa to Rome, I was in a car with this short Italian gentleman. He was very sweet — picked me up and also gave me lunch. I wanted to thank him for his kindness, and when we were just about to reach the destination, I said, “Te Amo”. I knew it meant, “I love you”, but thought it could also be taken to mean, “I like you”. The fellow was furious — he threw my backpack out and screamed, “Get out”. He thought I was homosexual! I wasn’t unfamiliar with Europe, but it was during this trip that I realized how different the east and west were.

The west was prosperous and people were free. They would sit with you and talk to you. Things were very easy — infrastructure was great and fees to enter places of interest were same for everyone; European or otherwise.

On the other hand, countries in the east — Poland, Russia, Hungary and Czechoslovakia — also known as “iron curtain countries”, were controlled by the Soviet Union. People were friendly, but wary of strangers. It was not easy to hitchhike; drivers who were willing to take you usually demanded a few dollars in exchange. There were also checkpoints on the road, and officials who manned the posts didn’t allow people if they didn’t carry enough hard currency cash with them. Communist countries were trying to get as much of hard currency as possible then. Entry fees for foreigners and locals to places of interest were different.

***

A defining moment of my life came from an unexpected incident that happened in what was then Yugoslavia. In Niš (now in Serbia), a kind man dropped me off at the railway station at 9:30pm, from where I had to take a train to Sofia the next day. The restaurant at the station refused to give me any food, since I did not have any Yugoslavian currency. The next day was a Sunday, and all banks were closed. I spent the day lying down at the station to conserve my energy and boarded the Sofia Express at 8pm.

Sitting opposite me in the train were a boy and girl. I was well-versed in English, French and Russian, and tried to strike a conversation. While the boy did not respond, the girl knew French and was kind and friendly. While we were talking, the lad walked up to a few policemen standing nearby and said something. The next thing I knew was that my bag was being ransacked. I was dragged out of the train and thrown into an 8 x 8ft room and my passport was confiscated. The room had just a toilet in a corner; the floor was hard and cold. There was no bed, no chair or table.

On Thursday morning, after about 120 hours without water and food, the doors opened. I was dragged out and locked up in the guard’s compartment of a freight train. I had lost the ability to think.

It had been almost two days since I had eaten anything. The next morning, I was hoping they would give me something to eat. When it was past breakfast, I thought there would be lunch at least. There was no lunch either. They had locked me up and were gone. At 4 in the evening, I thought I was going to die.

On Thursday morning, after about 120 hours without water and food, the doors opened. I was dragged out and locked up in the guard’s compartment of a freight train. I had lost the ability to think. They told me that they would not allow me to get down in Bulgaria, and that my backpack and passport would be returned in Istanbul. “You’re from a friendly country called India, so we’re letting you go”, they said.

I got my passport and backpack back, but the incident turned me from a confused Leftist to a determined capitalist. It left me disappointed in communism, and got me thinking about the method of governance that is best for a country’s development. While staying in Paris, I had also had a chance to meet George Marchais, the then head of the French communist party. I realized that a country can prosper only through the creation of jobs, and the only people who can do that are entrepreneurs. I realized, that a government’s job is not to create jobs but to make it easy for entrepreneurs to create jobs.

It happened many years ago and a lot has happened since, but I believe this event had something to do with the creation of Infosys.