Here's hoping for a totally normal year.

Finally , its almost over ! And entire year of pain, suffering and staying indoors. Centuries from now, historians are going to compare every doomsday year with the year 2020; a year which was supposed to be of hope , fun and all things good, but ended up killing more people than any natural calamity. This is a bar set too high.

For those of us who survived this year, it is easy to forget who scared we ourselves were at various points in time. The first few cases reported where all in Wuhan, China. It began with the hush-hush announcement of the pandemic, followed by the over confident response of world governments that we can easily survive this, and took a while for the reality to set in. That despite our world-class health systems and preparedness, we had no idea how to contain COVID-19. 

And that is when the fear set in;  when it was reported that there are now cases in our neighborhood, in the adjacent street, or in our office space. It was as if the whole world had gone to war, first with an invisible enemy, but then with each other. It was one thing to watch from safety as a distant country tore itself, totally another thing when the killer is next door.

As I write this, more than 1.7 million people have died world over due to the Corona virus. No amount of consolation can help the survivors of these deaths.

The virus is still out there, but 2021 now brings hope of its end. More than one vaccine has been shortlisted, and the world will eagerly wait for these life-saving drugs. We saw how at various points, ignorance and petty religious views infected more people. But science has won, as science has always won through the centuries.

For once, lets hope nothing great or worse happens this year. Lets hope for a totally normal year, a boring year where we can all go back to living our lives outdoors.

To clear your mind, here is a picture of a totally normal day somewhere in Switzerland.

Wish you a truly Happy New Year !

2020 finally delivers some good news !!

Finally ! Some good news. And about time too. 2020 has been horrible to all of us. But now, just around the tail end of this horrendous, monstrous year, there is something to celebrate. On the other side of this definitely-round earth, the Fragmented States of America have elected the lesser evil of their white candidates. Something they should have done four years ago !

Congratulations !!

Better late than never. And with this, the longest running reality show on the planet comes to its end...right ?

Oh...Wumpy Lumpy has announced that he is not going to give up his presidency. 

So the show goes on, a bit more, and hopefully everything will end in Jan next year. About 12 whole months after the world first woke up the Coronavirus. America will have plenty to catching up to do.

But this event is something definitely worth celebrating. Even if you are not in America. It shows how a imperfect system of electoral colleges can still work, if people put their minds to it. Instead of sitting back and complaining about how the system is rigged against them, people can get out there and play the game by its rules. Democracy takes time, and is imperfect, but still works.

But it is also a stark reminder that the country is more divided than it ever was. More people voted for Wumpy Lumpy than in 2016 ! Are you kidding me ? After everything that the nation has been through, after all those blatant lies and cover ups, there are still people willing to trust him with another 4 years ? Unbelievable. It is clear that those votes were for the institution and party behind him, and not explicitly for him. They might have lost, but they got their message out; there will always be racists and white supremacists in the leader of the free world. It is something they have to live with.

But the flip side is also true. All that needs for bad things to happen , is good people to do nothing. Here is hoping that the country has learnt this lesson, and that we will never have to see another president like Trump.

A second chance for an entire nation.

Its November 3rd. The first Tuesday in an election year. Over in the US. A rare second chance for a divided nation. To correct a 'mistake' committed 4 years ago.

One can only hope they do the right thing this time.

C'mon, USA. You can do this.

Happy Freedom Day !

 Happy Freedom Day, Melbourne ! Good to see everyone back. Lets not rush into things, we have got a long and glorious summer ahead of us.

A scientific opening up of the state

This just in. After more than 3 months under probably the world's harshest COVID-19 induced lockdowns, the metro area of Melbourne, and the state of Victoria is cautiously &  slowly opening up to a summer of hope. 

From midnight tonight, the city's imposed restriction of travel within 5 kms of resident's home, is being relaxed to a generous 25 kms ! And the max time limit of 2 hours is also gone for good. Families in the city can now be outdoors for however long they wish to be, as long as they don't mingle too much with other families. Outside of the family bubble, social distancing still applies, people have to wear masks and stay 1.5 m apart. But that is a small price to pay to the relative freedom this move brings to the millions locked down in the city. 

And if you can't already tell from my ear-to-ear smile, I am one of those millions who will now be able to enjoy a bit more of the elusive sun.

But nothing is set in stone, as the premier has repeatedly warned. If the case numbers grow , the restrictions will return. So we could still, technically, lose it all, if we decided to ignore the rules at the risk of public health.

But keeping that aside, Victoria's scientific and often extremely strict approach to containing this virus stands in stark contrast to how other states, and countries have bungled their own approach. After losing the plot by a ill-handled hotel quarantine system, the state had to hibernate for many months to earn their right to taste freedom again. And yes, many hundreds died during that time, and thousands of businesses went bust, but the state chose the lesser of two evils at every point. In the absence of a vaccine or anti-dote, the govt decided to save lives, instead of opening up for the sake of its destroyed economy. And this is where other countries, like the US, UK and India have got their priorities wrong.

Kudos to the city, state, and to the millions of Victorians who saw us all through. Yes this winter was longer and harsher than usual, but we can now look forward to warmer days in the sun. 

While the rest of the world decides to learn from us.

Well done, Melbourne !

Take a look at the COVID case graph of Victoria. It just keeps going down , down and down !

 

Now that, is impressive. Most of the cases in Victoria were concentrated in the capital city of Melbourne. But we knew all Victorians could see us through. It was tough, the past 6 weeks, made worse by us becoming the laughing stock of the nation. But all that matters is the result. And this is impressive indeed.

Here’s hoping we continue to keep the trend , and come out clean on the other side.

The Story of Fascism

Take one hour out of your day today. And watch this. Posting it here for posterity. And myself. 

Tis the season.

The weather in Australia continues to surprise me. Its as if someone is closely monitoring the calendar. It’s the start of September, and presto ! winter is gone. The cold, harsh sub 10 degree nights have now changed to 17 degrees. Daytime tops 20. That can only mean one thing: spring is here. Warm days abound. Had to switch the heater to ac mode.

The change of seasons here is truly amazing. Looking forward to warmer days.

 

Milestones

 

The pandemic and lockdown have slowed things down. But time does flow. Its that time of the year again, time to lookback at those milestones.

Is it bad out there? Definitely.

But days like today give you things to reflect upon. And I dodged a bullet today.

I am grateful for my circumstances. Most grateful to the people in my family.

Hey blogger

Hey blogger, just wanted to tell you.  The new interface sucks.

A stitch in time.

Victoria is right now in its 4^th week of its stage 4 restrictions, which was enforced starting August 2^nd. This is more of a curfew than a simple restriction and is far stricter and fine grained than the earlier restrictions. And it seems to be working. Take a look at the graph of new cases being reported in the state of Victoria.

The 2^nd of August is right in the middle of this graph, when the number of cases being reported was at its peak. And then the counts go down gradually, as soon as the curfew hits the city, and later the state completely. It is a familiar pattern, the number of infections decrease as soon as the primary vector, humans ,are immobilised. Everyone is staying locked in , until 13^th September, the date these restrictions are scheduled to end.

Simply put, a stitch in time saves nine.

It is not , and was never, that easy to ask Victorians to stay in. Aussies are an outdoorsy folk, the live outside, under the sun and in the rain. They could maybe stay in a few weeks, but definitely not in months. All through this period, there have been conspiracy theorists and plain idiots calling for a boycott of the curfews, asserting falsely, that it violates their ‘freedom of movement’, whatever that means. There were also calls from small business owners to re-open in a controlled way, in order to bring back much needed business. Add to this the bunch the virus deniers and anti-vaxxers, you have a gathering of monsters to control. Having never experience a war first hand, and not used to being ruled under a regime, people here take their own personal freedom for granted, and not  a privilege. The only thing the country had going for it was the small population. At 25 million people, there are more people in the state of Kerala in India than the total population of Australia and New Zealand combined ! So some police presence on the road, and the new of Australian Defence Forces patrolling the streets was enough to herd in the dissenters. And of course, the heavy fines 😊.

So verdict ? It seems to be working. One can only hope the course will hold steady until the counts come down to 0. And hopefully, this will the last time this lesson need to be learnt. This is our second time doing this, remember ?

Can’t go back. There can not be a third wave.

Optimistically nostalgic

Quarantine makes you do funny things. Lately, I have been feeling nostalgic , more  than usual. I think it is a collective phenomenon, I have been seen more posts on Twitter and facebook about others also on a nostalgic memory trip. It is clear now that we live in a much more complicated world today, and we all yearn to live in a little more simpler times.

There is no denying it, the 90s was the best decade to live in India. Especially late 90s, and early 2000s, the transition to the new century and new millennium. We made such a big hype and hoopla about it, the move into the new millennium. Year 2000 was supposed to usher in the futuristic years, it had a certain ring to it, and it promised changes, and a better life. As kids, we loved all of this, a phenomenon that only occurs once in a thousand years. We are gen-x, and we would grow up and shape the coming decades. There was so much optimism in the air back then.

Not that it did not happen, it did. Changes did come, and life did get better, for most of us. But it also became faster. Without realizing it, we ushered in a new decade of being late, of getting busier. Despite all the technological advancements, people are always in a hurry, to get to places, to get more work done in the same 24 hour period. And that , for me is the big irony of the internet age.

Reminds me of that poem , Leisure , by W H Davies.

What is this life if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.

No time to stand beneath the boughs
And stare as long as sheep or cows.

No time to see, when woods we pass,
Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass.

No time to see, in broad daylight,
Streams full of stars like skies at night.

No time to turn at Beauty’s glance,
And watch her feet, how they can dance.

No time to wait till her mouth can
Enrich that smile her eyes began.

A poor life this if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.

 

And these are precisely the kind of things I used to do as a child. Walk and run in wide open spaces, looking at sheep and cows, climb trees, smell the flowers. Enjoying the stars at night, listening to sounds of owls, crickets and frogs. I had a cycle, literally grew up on one, which I used to pedal everywhere. And had a bunch of friends to meet and hangout with almost everyday. By mid 90s, new channels started appearing on the TVs, and internet arrived by the late 90s. But these were all so expensive, and out of the budget of kids like ourselves. So we would go out to a café and send and email, but also meet the recipient later in the day, and tell them we had emailed them. So the next day, they would visit the café and read that email.

Waste of time ? Sure. Waste of money ? 100 %!! But it was fun. And we did all this knowing we needn’t worry too much about the future. A bright, and optimistic future where there would be no problems, and everyone was happy, and had time for each other. Something told us we could still enjoy the outdoors, and each other’s company well into our thirties. In fact, we all wanted to grow up so fast. Thirties was the age to be in !!

Nothing could be farther from the truth. The thirties suck. Unless you have a few good things to look forward to. Small pockets of joy to nurture yourself on, and small challenges to overcome. Watching movies about contagions is one thing, living through that hell is something far worse. The only thing one can have in these difficult time is hope.

If you can’t hope to go back, you can always hope for a better future.

 

 

 

Its worse the second time.

The last few weeks have been really weird living in Melbourne . The city is usually crowded with people walking in long winter jackets. It sometimes rains suddenly without warning , and people run to the nearest shelter. The days are very short , and people lap up multiple cups of coffee and run in the parks. Pubss, restaurants, hotels are always full, no matter what time of the day it is .

But you would be hard pressed to realise that this is the same city we're living in right now. There is nobody outside, absolutely nobody. Melbourne is now in a stage four locked on restriction. State of Victoria is in stage three locked on restriction. until a few years ago, Melbourne was known as the best city to live in the whole world. The irony of it. Despite being a properly planned city , with excellent infrastructure and better than average governance, the city has gone to the dogs. If you people, mind you are very few small number of people, never thought of staying in during the restrictions imposed in the first wave lockdown. And now the larger city and the entire state is paying its price for it .

It's always tougher the second time around. During the first wave lockdowns, the people were largely confident that we will be able to easily beat the coronavirus . After all we are the Australia ,the country which survived the last recession. Even when the lockdowns were announced, there was sheer optimism on the walls and on the internet . Those storeys of optimism going around , people were donating money to the poor, the needy, the sick . people for donating things like toilet paper dried foods to those in need. Many were keeping teddy bears on the windowsills so children could count them . But the second time around stop that optimism is gone for the better. the number of positive cases is now more than three times the big count from the first wave . More people have died . There is nothing to be optimistic about.

Countries like Australia have a problem, they have never seen Days of restriction. The citizens often strike and shut down the streets, but they have never seen a day when the government shuts down the streets and forced people to stay home. such things are only heard of from developing nations like India, or a failed state like the current USA. People here have always been free, as a country and as individuals. So when a law is passed requiring them to give up those freedoms, they don't know how to react. For the average Australian, giving up a full few days of freedom is OK, but anything more than a week and the people will start to revolt. They don't understand staying in . These are people who spend more time outdoors than inside their homes anyway.

But there's always a first time , specially days like this pandemic. There's a lot riding on this latest stage for restriction. It's not only the entire country, but the entire world watching us right now. It is essential for everybody in the country to follow the government imposed restrictions this next couple of weeks in order to ensure we come out clean on the other side. As I've said before, we are at war . We are fighting an invisible enemy. But the good thing is we don't have to go out and fight listen to me.

All we have to do is shut up and stay home.

Internet is a weak substitute

This is a great interview with Jia Tolentino in Interview magazine. Take for instance her answer to the question “What has this pandemic confirmed or reinforced about your view of society?”:

That capitalist individualism has turned into a death cult; that the internet is a weak substitute for physical presence; that this country criminally undervalues its most important people and its most important forms of labor; that we’re incentivized through online mechanisms to value the representation of something (like justice) over the thing itself; that most of us hold more unknown potential, more negative capability, than we’re accustomed to accessing; that the material conditions of life in America are constructed and maintained by those best set up to exploit them; and that the way we live is not inevitable at all.

From later in the interview:

I think the American obsession with symbolic freedom has to be traded for a desire for actual freedom: the freedom to get sick without knowing it could bankrupt you, the freedom for your peers to live life without fearing they’ll be killed by police. The dream of collective well-being has to outweigh, day-to-day, the dream of individual success.

 

Doing the right thing is always tough.

The great state of Victoria is right now the laughing stock and the black sheep in Australia. With rising counts of COVID-19 cases, clearly pointing to large scale community transmission leading to a second peak, and the inability of the government to prioritize resident health over revitalising the economy has clearly shown the lack of strong leadership in the state. And the relative outstanding performance of other states, even neighbouring states, paints a bleak picture for Vic. If these other states can efficiently manage these numbers, why can’t us ?

This is the same failing leadership which was on display during last year’s bush fires. Yes, that was just last year. This ‘wait and watch’ approach to emergency situations is something typically seen in developing nations. It does not sit well in such a developed country.

The truth is, the people in power know what the right thing to do is. But can’t. It takes courage, and commitment, to do the right thing.

The kids in the government need to grow up.

Prime’s free movies: Becoming Jane

https://medium.com/@placetaken/primes-free-movies-becoming-jane-612e500d97ba

We have been under lockdown for more than 3 months now. During this period, I finally found some free time, and I spent a few of it watching some free movies on Prime. From yesterday. Here are my reviews:

Read the rest here : 

https://medium.com/@placetaken/primes-free-movies-becoming-jane-612e500d97ba

Where’s the peak ?

I honestly cannot believe we are now 6 months into this year. This pandemic filled nightmare year. How could we have got this so wrong ? 2020 was going to be the fancy year, the fun and happening year. The culmination of two decades into the millennium, the yeas in which millennials turn adults.  And , if you subscribed to the political propaganda, and had read the books of Abdul Kalam, this was the year India was going to makes its mark (Remember the book, India 2020 ?)on the world.

Well India has left and will leave its mark on the world. The world’s largest lockdown has turned out to be hogwash, and India has accelerated itself into the top 5 of the world’s COVID affected countries. Long predicted by the world’s non-Indian infectious disease experts, this statement was ‘fake-news’ed by India’s politicians early on. Even now, the Govt denies India has community spread, and is getting ready to organize political rallies for the upcoming state elections.

And here is the bare truth : we are yet to peak.

It does not inspire confidence when scientific consensus is thrown out in favour of political propaganda. To be fair, India is not the only country to do so, almost every country has fudged their numbers, if rumour is to be believed, to look better than others. But while some others have genuinely put in the hard work and effort to fight this invisible enemy, ours is a case of being attacked on multiple fronts.

 

The plights of India’s poor migrant labours was the first of these. This was followed by reported intrusion at the border with China. And now , the country is hearing about the border being redrawn with our northern ally Nepal.  PM Modi and his cabinet has long denied the reported slow down in our economy, but now the pandemic has brought it to stop. There is now a half planned, and half-hearted attempt to restart manufacturing in this troubled economy, and to ‘turn the virus into an opportunity’. It is balderdash that the nation can do in a few months what it could not do in more than 70 years. But the biggest gobbledygook of all was the stimulus package announced by the govt, which was mostly repackaging of previously announced plans, with the govt delegating   responsibility of the stimulus to the nation’s already trouble banks. It did not help that a section of the media sided with the govt’s lies to keep  the people in the blind.

 

Day to day life has now become increasingly dangerous in India. The govt no longer cares (if it ever did) about its people, and is focussed on upcoming elections, and making the people work for the govt, instead of the other way around.

Ask not, they say, what the nation can do for the people, but what the people can further do for the nation.

 

 

 

 

Going medium

https://medium.com/@placetaken

 

Sometimes, you have to be in the medium space.

Everyone expects India's economy to contract. Everyone.

S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Indian economy will shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal as it joined a chorus of international agencies that are forecasting a contraction in growth rate due to coronavirus lockdown halting economic activity.

Stating that COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India, the rating agency in a statement said the government stimulus package is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic.

"The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown -- longer in some areas -- have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said. "Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world."

Forecasting a 5 per cent contraction in 2020-21 (versus 1.8 per cent growth forecast it made in April), S&P said growth is expected to pick up to 8.5 per cent in the following fiscal (up from the previous forecast of 7.5 per cent). The GDP is projected to expand by 6.5 per cent in FY23 and 6.6 per cent FY24.

Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings and Crisil, too, projected a 5 per cent contraction for the Indian economy.

While Fitch Ratings had stated that India has had a very stringent lockdown policy that has lasted a lot longer than initially expected and incoming economic activity data have been spectacularly weak, Crisil had said the country's fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date, is here.

On Thursday, Fitch Solutions (which is separate from Fitch Ratings) forecast real GDP to contract by 4.5 per cent in FY2020-21 saying "high unemployment will depress consumer spending, while widespread economic uncertainties will curb investment in the private sector.

Moody's Investors Service on May 8, forecast a 'zero' growth rate for India in FY21.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice – as per available data – in fiscal year 1958, 1966 and 1980. A monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy, was the reason on all three occasions.

This time around agriculture is not the reason but a dent to industrial and economic activity caused by lockdown, which was first imposed on March 25. The lockdown has been extended thrice till May 31 with some easing of restrictions.

S&P Global Ratings expects varying degrees of containment measures and economic resumption across India during this transition.

"COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India. New cases have been averaging more than 6,000 a day over the past week as authorities begin easing stringent lockdown restrictions gradually to prevent economic costs from blowing out further. We currently assume that the outbreak peaks by the third quarter," it said.

India has grouped geographical zones into red, orange, or green categories based on the number of cases. Areas currently classified as red zones are also economically significant, and the authorities could extend mobility restrictions.

"We believe economic activity in these places will take longer to normalize. This will have knock-on impacts on countrywide supply chains, which will slow the overall recovery," it said.

The rating agency said high-frequency data for April showed major economic costs for India - purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector was 5.4, on a scale where anything below 50 indicates a contraction of business activity from the previous month for the sector.

Also, service sectors, which account for high shares of employment, have been severely affected, thus leading to large-scale job losses across the country. Workers have been geographically displaced as migrant workers travelled back home before the lockdown, and this will take time to unwind as lockdown measures are lifted.

"We expect that employment will remain depressed over the transition period," it said.

S&P said India has limited room to maneuver on policy support. The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 115 basis points but banks have been unwilling to extend credit. Small and mid-size enterprises continue to face restricted access to credit markets despite some policy measures aimed at easing financing for the sector.

"The government's stimulus package, with a headline amount of 10 per cent of GDP, has about 1.2 per cent of direct stimulus measures, which is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. The remaining 8.8 per cent of the package includes liquidity support measures and credit guarantees that will not directly support growth," it said.

The rating agency said the big hit to growth will mean a large, permanent economic loss and a deterioration in balance sheets throughout the economy.

"The risks around the path of recovery will depend on three key factors. First, the speed with which the COVID-19 outbreak comes under control. Faster flattening of the curve -- in other words, reducing the number of new cases -- will potentially allow faster normalization of activity. Second, a labour market recovery will be key to getting the economy running again. Finally, the ability of all sectors of the economy to restore their balance sheets following the adverse shock will be important. The longer the duration of the shock, the longer recovery," it added.

Acknowledging a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak, it said some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak around mid-year, and that has been used as an assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications.

The Kerala model

 When, towards the end of the first decade of the present century, Narendra Modi began speaking frequently about something he called the 'Gujarat Model', it was the second time a state of the Indian Union had that grand, self-promoting, suffix added to its name. The first was Kerala. The origins of the term 'Kerala Model' go back to a study done in the 1970s by economists associated with the Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram. This showed that when it came to indices of population (as in declining birth rates), education (as in remarkably high literacy for women) and health (as in lower infant mortality and higher life expectancy), this small state in a desperately poor country had done as well - and sometimes better - than parts of Europe and North America.

Boosted to begin with by economists and demographers, Kerala soon came in for praise from sociologists and political scientists. The former argued that caste and class distinctions had radically diminished in Kerala over the course of the 20th century; the latter showed that, when it came to implementing the provisions of the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution, Kerala was ahead of other states. More power had been devolved to municipalities and panchayats than elsewhere in India.

Success, as John F. Kennedy famously remarked, has many fathers (while failure is an orphan). When these achievements of the state of Kerala became widely known, many groups rushed to claim their share of the credit. The communists, who had been in power for long stretches, said it was their economic radicalism that did it. Followers of Sri Narayana Guru (1855-1928) said it was the egalitarianism promoted by that great social reformer which led to much of what followed. Those still loyal to the royal houses of Travancore and Cochin observed that when it came to education, and especially girls' education, their Rulers were more progressive than Maharajas and Nawabs elsewhere. The Christian community of Kerala also chipped in, noting that some of the best schools, colleges, and hospitals were run by the Church. It was left to that fine Australian historian of Kerala and India, Robin Jeffrey, to critically analyse all these claims, and demonstrate in what order and what magnitude they contributed. His book Politics, Women and Wellbeing remains the definitive work on the subject.

Such were the elements of the 'Kerala Model'. What did the 'Gujarat Model' that Narendra Modi began speaking of, c. 2007, comprise? Mr Modi did not himself ever define it very precisely. But there is little doubt that the coinage itself was inspired and provoked by what had preceded it. The Gujarat Model would, Mr Modi was suggesting, be different from, and better than, the Kerala Model. Among the noticeable weaknesses of the latter was that it did not really encourage private enterprise. Marxist ideology and trade union politics both inhibited this. On the other hand, the Vibrant Gujarat Summits organized once every two years when Mr Modi was Chief Minister were intended precisely to attract private investment.

This openness to private capital was, for Mr Modi's supporters, undoubtedly the most attractive feature of what he was marketing as the 'Gujarat Model'. It was this that brought to him the support of big business, and of small business as well, when he launched his campaign for Prime Minister. Young professionals, disgusted by the cronyism and corruption of the UPA regime, flocked to his support, seeing him as a modernizing Messiah who would make India an economic powerhouse. 

With the support of these groups, and many others, Narendra Modi was elected Prime Minister in May 2014.

There were other aspects of the Gujarat Model that Narendra Modi did not speak about, but which those who knew the state rather better than the Titans of Indian industry were perfectly aware of. These included the relegation of minorities (and particularly Muslims) to second-class status; the centralization of power in the Chief Minister and the creation of a cult of personality around him; attacks on the independence and autonomy of universities; curbs on the freedom of the press; and, not least, a vengeful attitude towards critics and political rivals.

These darker sides of the Gujarat Model were all played down in Mr Modi's Prime Ministerial campaign. But in the six years since he has been in power at the Centre, they have become starkly visible. The communalization of politics and of popular discourse, the capturing of public institutions, the intimidation of the press, the use of the police and investigating agencies to harass opponents, and, perhaps above all, the deification of the Great Leader by the party, the Cabinet, the Government, and the Godi Media - these have characterized the Prime Ministerial tenure of Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, the most widely advertised positive feature of the Gujarat Model before 2014 has proved to be a dud. Far from being a free-market reformer, Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is an absolute statist in economic matters. As an investment banker who once enthusiastically supported him recently told me in disgust: "Narendra Modi is our most left-wing Prime Minister ever - he is even more left-wing than Jawaharlal Nehru".

Which brings me back to the Kerala Model, which the Gujarat Model sought to replace or supplant. Talked about a great deal in the 1980s and 1990s, in recent years, the term was not much heard in policy discourse any more. It had fallen into disuse, presumably consigned to the dustbin of history. The onset of COVID-19 has now thankfully rescued it, and indeed brought it back to centre-stage. For in how it has confronted, tackled, and tamed the COVID crisis, Kerala has once again showed itself to be a model for India - and perhaps the world.

There has been some excellent reporting on how Kerala flattened the curve. It seems clear that there is a deeper historical legacy behind the success of this state. Because the people of Kerala are better educated, they have followed the practices in their daily life least likely to allow community transmission. Because they have such excellent health care, if people do test positive, they can be treated promptly and adequately. Because caste and gender distinctions are less extreme than elsewhere in India, access to health care and medical information is less skewed. Because decentralization of power is embedded in systems of governance, panchayat heads do not have to wait for a signal from a Big Boss before deciding to act. There are two other features of Kerala's political culture that have helped them in the present context; its top leaders are generally more grounded and less imperious than elsewhere, and bipartisanship comes more easily to the state's politicians.

The state of Kerala is by no means perfect. While there have been no serious communal riots for many decades, in everyday life there is still some amount of reserve in relations between Hindus, Christians and Muslims. Casteism and patriarchy have been weakened, but by no means eliminated. The intelligentsia still remain unreasonably suspicious of private enterprise, which will hurt the state greatly in the post-COVID era, after remittances from the Gulf have dried up.

For all their flaws, the state and people of Kerala have many things to teach us, who live in the rest of India. We forgot about their virtues in the past decade, but now these virtues are once more being discussed, to both inspire and chastise us. The success of the state in the past and in the present have rested on science, transparency, decentralization, and social equality. These are, as it were, the four pillars of the Kerala Model. On the other hand, the four pillars of the Gujarat Model are superstition, secrecy, centralization, and communal bigotry. Give us the first over the second, any day. 

 

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/give-us-kerala-model-over-gujarat-model-any-day-by-ramachandra-guha-2216254

Big year.

This will one of those big years for me. Correction - biggest year. Life changing. Things are never going to be the same again. I will be looking back to these times forever from this point. Am I ready for it ?

Oh yes. Ready as I will every be.

But the truth is, no one is really ready for these things. You just go with it.

And learn.

A world of changes.

It has been quiet, lately When I go out now, there are fewer people on the road, in the trams, and everywhere else. Trains are no longer full, and run on time. For the first time in maybe years, all trains are been cleaned. It is now easier to drive on the roads, fewer cars outside, no traffic jams. No crowds, no noisy neighbours, and when you sneeze, nobody turns around and says “bless you!”

If it was not for the pandemic, and the fact that so many people have already died, this would have been a much better world to yearn for. It is ironical that it took a disease to tell us that there are indeed more powerful forces on this planet than brute human strength.

March, 2020. This month is going to live on in infamy. It took 3 months for the whole world to wake up to the threat; a new, invisible enemy that our planet has to fight. In these past days, two things have become ever clear. One: we are not prepared. Not even the most developed and advanced countries on earth are prepared for a pandemic of this proportion. All the while nations were busy fighting over each other, stocking up arms and preparing for future wars. No one thought of other ways their nations could be defeated: sheer human lethargy. Things have come to such an extent that some nations have issued shoot at sight orders against their own citizens, if they ever step out of their homes! Others have just resorted to fines at the moment, while some have started using brute force, with no regards to human rights and constitutional rights of its citizens.

Two: The borders between the rich and poor have never been as clear and sharp than what is exposed right now. Its easy for the govt of any country to declare mandatory social distancing. But only those who have a home can stay home. Social distancing is a privilege, enjoyed by the rich, or at least financially prepared. For the poor, who live from day to day, and with no long term social security or planning, it is simply not an option. While those with disposal incomes were hoarding supermarket produce, ordering takeout delivery ,staying home and watching streamed videos, those who couldn’t do it were struggling to pay their and rent and buy the day’s essentials. Many lost their jobs, due to companies running into overnight losses, and many others have been kicked out of their homes, due to inability to pay rent. Buried within the statistics of COVID deaths is an invisible count of people who died due to the shutdown, but not directly due to the virus.

In India, the nation’s stark difference between its rich and poor have exposed how unprepared the govt is at managing a pandemic. While cabinet ministers are at home playing board games, and PM is on tv shedding crocodile tears, a long line of poor, migrant workers is snaking across the nation, in an attempt to get home. Ignoring all calls to socially distance, millions of daily wage workers have come together to strike for the day’s meal, or just ask for the path to travel home. Due to public transportation being shutdown in most places, and borders between states now being closely monitored, these workers have resorted to walking hundreds of kilometres home through dangerous forests and treacherous  terrain, to slip under the eyes of authorities. Many have died in this exodus. The govt has tried to shift responsibilities to its well to do urban rich, asking them to pay their workers during the lockdown, blindly believing the non-existent trickle down economy will take of the lower levels. The numbers of COVID infected are meanwhile, growing exponentially.

This event is undoubtedly going to change the world. For the better, I sincerely hope. Now is the time to see the benefits of social welfare programs taking care of a nation’s needy. This is not the time to worry about a failing economy, but the failing healthcare system. Already some world leaders have been infected, showing the world that a pandemic like this does not differentiate between the rich and poor. Or between religion and borders. Lets learn from this, and be better prepared for next time.

PS: I am reminded of Ian Malcolm’s ramblings in Jurassic Park, when he says the world and nature will find a way to stop humans. This world was here billions of years before us, and will persist fo billions more without us. Incurable diseases is just one way of keeping escalating population in check.

World war C

This is war. Full on. No government might mention or accept it, but we are now at war. Against an enemy we can’t see or hear.  We are at war with the Coronavirus. And therefore, at each other.

You see, the only way the virus could have spread this far out into the world was my human-to-human contact. And governments world over have now started to advice social-distancing. Things have now come down to this, we now have to avoid each other ! Governments in Italy ,China, Spain have announced full lockdowns, restricting its people from even venturing out, whether they are infected or not. And other countries are following suit.

Australia, too panic-stricken to lead by example, is yet to call a nation-wide absolute lockdown. Worried more about its economy, which was already sliding before the pandemic, they only banned flights from China, and advised people to follow minimum protocols. Now with 290 confirmed cases and 3 deaths, there is a little more seriousness in the way their approach to the war. A few weeks back, the idiots down under lit up Australian national monuments in red and yellow, to show solidarity & remember the sacrifice of China; but it was more of a PR effort to retain the good relations with that country. It took the Aussies an additional week to announce the full ban against travellers from Italy, and the damage is now visible. The country had barely recovered from the disastrous bush fires, right into this pandemic. The fight for toilet paper is still on.

Things aren’t looking any better for India, who’s leaders took all their sweet time to draft and finalize a proper response. Kerala was the first Indian state to report an infection, but also the first to announce a fool-proof action plan to isolate and treat the patient. This was last month, showing exceptional knowledge & leadership in the matter. The rest of India at the time asked questions as to why is it always Kerala that is the epicenter of new, viral diseases, and religious bigots blamed the food habits and breakage of temple rituals for the initial spread. But now no-one is questioning the lack of leadership from the central government, now that there are 100 cases and 2 deaths.  Sanghis are resorting to drinking cow-urine and bathing in cow-dung to prevent an infection, becoming the laughing stock of the rest of the world.

And it is ironic that Italy and Iran , countries known to be too open and too closed to the outside world, are equally affected by COVID infections.

But no country was un-prepared for this pandemic than, wait for it….the US. The leader of the free world was caught with its pants down with s serious outbreak, when the nation was itself busy in the initial stages of its presidential election. The whitehouse, again more worried about the falling stock markets, continued to pelt lies and false propaganda, and struggled to lead a country which does not even have universal health care. The gaps in its preparedness and leadership is now as clear as night and day, with 45 deaths right in the state of Washington. If nothing else, this alone should be enough to wipe the country of its real infection, the virus sitting in the oval office, and hopefully, its citizens would vote for the democratic party, just to receive a generous medical insurance cover.

Scientists and leaders are shocked at the un-precented rapid spread of the viral pandemic, around the world, in just 3 months. At this moment, there are over 169,000 confirmed COVID cases, and 6,500 deaths. You could chart and sort the data however you want, but the fact remains that the world was too busy fighting oil wars and trade and tariff wars with each other, and no body had a plan or a prediction for a viral outbreak. Hollywood is good at making movies about viral epidemics, but for once, a horror movie is coming to life. In the initial days, virologists were trying to figure out the original source of this aberration, blaming bats, snakes and pangolins for being the host. But everyone has forgotten that branch of thought, the current host right now are human beings. The more we embrace and thank each other, the more we are passing on the virus.

This incident will change the world. Later generations, hopefully there are a few, will talk, discuss and study how grossly unprepared the world was. They will study how false news and hype caused more damage than the actual infection. And how leaders were focussed on economy and money, and were hesitant to focus on their greatest wealth and asset – human beings. Hopefully, we will emerge from this unscathed, with a fraction of the world population lost, but with lessons learnt from the mistakes we made.

This maybe the next big war we fight, as one. So please stay together in spirit, but ironically, remember to maintain your distance.

How hitchhiking through Europe inspired Narayana Murthy to set up Infosys

 

It is mentioned in NRN’s biography that it was a unfortunate & painful experience during his hitch-hiking trips in 1970s Europe that converted him from a communist to capitalist. And that was the epihany that inspired his company. Here is the story in a little more detail.

 

 

Paris, 1974.

It had been several years since I was working in Paris. I was 27, and lived in a one-bedroom apartment on the 7th arrondissement.

The Europe of the seventies saw influences of leftism, socialism and liberalism. In 1968, there had been a student revolution, and its impact was clear. Students voiced their opinion on every major matter. Paris was then the safest city in Europe. There was no Charles de Gaulle then, but only the Orly airport. On most weekends, my friends and I would be out till 2am. We would walk home (it was the most well-lit city in the world), since the Metro would close by 1am.

My friends and I would frequently drive to London. There was no Channel Tunnel then. We would take a night train to Calais, and from there, a ferry to Dover. We would drive into the ship, park our car, sit in the lounge, and drive out after getting there. The process was not difficult, but it took about 6-8 hours.

Despite the fact that it was barely two years after the Munich Olympic massacre of 1972, the fear of people hadn’t percolated into everyday routine as it has now.

I had been thinking of enhancing my experience in Europe, and wanted to hitchhike across European countries. I had travelled around—I would take off once every month and had visited Germany, Holland and Austria—but had never backpacked, or gotten around in strangers’ cars. I thought about it for six months. I knew that if I didn’t do it then, I wouldn’t do it at all.

I had saved about USD 5,000 from my salary, of which I kept USD 450. The rest I gave away to an organization called Freres de Tiers Mondes, which translates to ‘Brothers from the third world’. Since I was hitchhiking, I didn’t need all that money.

As an Indian, I needed visa to travel. There was no Schengen then. So, it took me approximately a month and half to get visas ready for 25 countries. I bought a nice backpack, a sleeping bag, a windcheater and some winter clothes before the trip. There were no credit cards then, so I carried some traveller’s cheques.

I resigned from my job, and over the next 11 months, hitchhiked from Paris to Kabul, covering Italy, Austria, Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, Jordan, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Serbia, Croatia (then Yugoslavia), Bulgaria, Istanbul, Greece and Afghanistan.

Across most of Europe, I got around by hitchhiking. Those days, it was very easy to get a lift. You just went to the gas station and stood there. There were no destinations – drivers would pick up people who were going in the same direction as them. Sometimes, they would also offer lunch or dinner. These days, one hardly sees people hitchhiking. Then, gas stations would be filled with hitchhikers, especially during summers.

Today, I am certain that one would not be allowed to sleep at railway stations in Europe. But, that is exactly what I did during the trip.

Usually one had to wait for an hour or two to be picked up, but I have also waited for six hours at times. I had a pocket radio, which kept me entertained while I waited. Meals would usually be easy-to-carry items like sandwiches with French fries. At that time, I was not vegetarian; it would have been very difficult if I were. Since it would get very cold often, I had with me a flask to store hot coffee or tea.

The biggest difference that I see between the world then and now, is fear. Today, people are so scared of other people. Nobody allows strangers in their cars. Despite the fact that it was barely two years after the Munich Olympic massacre of 1972, the fear of people hadn’t percolated into everyday routine as it has now.

Today, I am certain that one would not be allowed to sleep at railway stations in Europe. But, that is exactly what I did during the trip. Most drivers would drop you at railway stations. I would leave my sleeping bag and backpack in the locker — which came cheap at about 25 cents for a day — and went out to see the city. I would return at night and sleep on one of the benches, as many others did. The police would walk past and smile at us — there was no fear.

It was also very convenient — they were open 24 hours a day, were clean and pleasant, and had coffee shops and restaurants too.

***

Out in the world, there were many interesting incidents. For instance, while travelling from Pisa to Rome, I was in a car with this short Italian gentleman. He was very sweet — picked me up and also gave me lunch. I wanted to thank him for his kindness, and when we were just about to reach the destination, I said, “Te Amo”. I knew it meant, “I love you”, but thought it could also be taken to mean, “I like you”. The fellow was furious — he threw my backpack out and screamed, “Get out”. He thought I was homosexual! I wasn’t unfamiliar with Europe, but it was during this trip that I realized how different the east and west were.

The west was prosperous and people were free. They would sit with you and talk to you. Things were very easy — infrastructure was great and fees to enter places of interest were same for everyone; European or otherwise.

On the other hand, countries in the east — Poland, Russia, Hungary and Czechoslovakia — also known as “iron curtain countries”, were controlled by the Soviet Union. People were friendly, but wary of strangers. It was not easy to hitchhike; drivers who were willing to take you usually demanded a few dollars in exchange. There were also checkpoints on the road, and officials who manned the posts didn’t allow people if they didn’t carry enough hard currency cash with them. Communist countries were trying to get as much of hard currency as possible then. Entry fees for foreigners and locals to places of interest were different.

***

A defining moment of my life came from an unexpected incident that happened in what was then Yugoslavia. In Niš (now in Serbia), a kind man dropped me off at the railway station at 9:30pm, from where I had to take a train to Sofia the next day. The restaurant at the station refused to give me any food, since I did not have any Yugoslavian currency. The next day was a Sunday, and all banks were closed. I spent the day lying down at the station to conserve my energy and boarded the Sofia Express at 8pm.

Sitting opposite me in the train were a boy and girl. I was well-versed in English, French and Russian, and tried to strike a conversation. While the boy did not respond, the girl knew French and was kind and friendly. While we were talking, the lad walked up to a few policemen standing nearby and said something. The next thing I knew was that my bag was being ransacked. I was dragged out of the train and thrown into an 8 x 8ft room and my passport was confiscated. The room had just a toilet in a corner; the floor was hard and cold. There was no bed, no chair or table.

On Thursday morning, after about 120 hours without water and food, the doors opened. I was dragged out and locked up in the guard’s compartment of a freight train. I had lost the ability to think.

It had been almost two days since I had eaten anything. The next morning, I was hoping they would give me something to eat. When it was past breakfast, I thought there would be lunch at least. There was no lunch either. They had locked me up and were gone. At 4 in the evening, I thought I was going to die.

On Thursday morning, after about 120 hours without water and food, the doors opened. I was dragged out and locked up in the guard’s compartment of a freight train. I had lost the ability to think. They told me that they would not allow me to get down in Bulgaria, and that my backpack and passport would be returned in Istanbul. “You’re from a friendly country called India, so we’re letting you go”, they said.

I got my passport and backpack back, but the incident turned me from a confused Leftist to a determined capitalist. It left me disappointed in communism, and got me thinking about the method of governance that is best for a country’s development. While staying in Paris, I had also had a chance to meet George Marchais, the then head of the French communist party. I realized that a country can prosper only through the creation of jobs, and the only people who can do that are entrepreneurs. I realized, that a government’s job is not to create jobs but to make it easy for entrepreneurs to create jobs.

It happened many years ago and a lot has happened since, but I believe this event had something to do with the creation of Infosys.